Our news from COP28: A round-up from Development Initiatives

After a week here at COP, and with one left to go, I thought it would be a good time to check-in and reflect on some of the key takeaways Martha Bekele and I will be sharing with our teams at Development Initiatives (DI).

Looking back at the events and panels we’ve been attending over the last week, one thing is obvious… climate finance isn’t reaching those who need it the most.

It’s become clear that our work at DI is needed now, more than ever, to ensure that we not only make climate finance more transparent and accountable but that we also support partners to build climate data ecosystems that are more comprehensive, coordinated, sustainable, nationally led and people centred. For me, this is a critical part of DI’s role – working to bring the data and evidence that will shape truly transformational climate finance as we look ahead.

What has COP delivered so far?

COP started with a momentous ‘win’: the Loss and Damage Fund was established, and this is welcome after many years of concerted campaigning by small island developing states, climate-vulnerable countries and civil society. Yet despite so many pledges by so many states, IFIs and philanthropies, the lack of coherence or ability to accurately track climate finance remains one of the biggest barriers to effective climate action.

DI has already shown there are multiple inconsistencies in how climate finance is reported. Next we aim to analyse contributor reporting – identifying best practices and developing recommendations that can inform a more robust reporting framework for future targets. For example, our pilot research used AI to assess how key donors are recording climate funds. We found one in five of the World Bank's projects might be incorrectly labelled as climate finance.

Is climate finance wrongly reported by over a billion dollars per year?

Adaptation funding is a key area of focus at this year’s COP. It’s a crucial component of existing climate finance for communities most vulnerable to climate change. To date, adaptation finance has been small-scale and slow to be implemented. At COP28, governments are expected to adopt a framework for achieving the Paris Agreement’s Global Goal on Adaptation. It is hoped this will define adaptation goals and offer ways to measure progress towards its achievement.

At the Adaptation side event at the UCGLA Pavilion on Sunday, Martha spoke about the need for a transparent way to measure contributions to climate finance to ensure that wealthy countries would be accountable for the pledges they make. This is crucial to make sure that meaningful adaptation is drastically scaled up and reaches those who are most vulnerable, but least responsible as they build resilience to climate change.

While more financing for adaptation is critical, how and where this finance is delivered must also be addressed. Evidence shows that very small volumes of adaptation finance reach those who need it the most. Climate funds and IFIs must ensure they direct more adaptation finance to fragile and conflict affected states. Huge delays between the commitment and disbursal of funds must also be closed and, particularly in fragile contexts, it is vital that adaptation finance is grant-based and not provided as loans.

Whose voices are heard?

‘Statistics are stories with tears wiped away’ – those words will never leave me after hearing them when I joined a panel at the Global Conference on Gender and Environment Data, I spoke about how women, girls and other marginalised communities are structurally vulnerable to climate change, and that currently there is not an adequate climate data ecosystem that captures the lived experiences of these women and girls.

As a champion of inclusive data, DI aims to ensure that everyone’s experience is captured within official data systems, which will help drive improvement in these systems. It’s also a key step to helping improve policies and making sure finance is well targeted.

Read my blog on improving gender-responsive climate finance

How might climate change impact need?

We know that prearranged, predictable funding is a key factor in building the resilience of communities. Yet although 55% of humanitarian funding targets somewhat predictable crises, only 1% of this funding is pre-arranged. Machine learning represents a huge opportunity to harness the power of data and evidence to enhance anticipatory action in the face of crisis and support those most in need.

Our pilot study of four possible climate-change scenarios suggested rises in humanitarian need until at least 2080, from a plateauing 27% increase (our best-case scenario) to a 97%-and-rising increase (in a world that continues to rely heavily on fossil fuels).

Read more about how we applied machine learning to estimate humanitarian need

Climate and health 

It’s been a COP of firsts – a first trade and gender equality day, and also a first health day. Our analysts looking into the intersection of climate and health found that less than 10% of health sector ODA from DAC donors is marked to be climate related. Climate-marked health ODA can link to areas such as resilience building in health systems, early warning systems and research and development. You can follow Martha and I at COP via social media, and see our schedule here.

Follow us at COP

We at DI are building new and innovative ideas, in partnership, so that our shared vision of climate data ecosystems can become a reality. We are always looking to expand partnerships and funding opportunities to ensure that our work reaches the right people and places, and delivers impacts for those at risk of being left behind. If you would like to hear more about our work, or discuss potential ways of working together, please do get in touch.  You can read more about some of our upcoming areas of work:

• What does transformative gender-responsive climate finance look like?
• An integrated approach to tracking climate, humanitarian and development finance